Chinasoft International Limited (HKG:354) shares have had a horrible month, losing 36% after a relatively good period beforehand. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 14% share price drop.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, Chinasoft International may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 10x and even P/E's lower than 6x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
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Chinasoft International hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Check out our latest analysis for Chinasoft International
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Chinasoft International's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 23%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 50% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the ten analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 24% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 14% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we can see why Chinasoft International is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.
Chinasoft International's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Chinasoft International maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Chinasoft International with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
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