Walmart (WMT) could withdraw its fiscal 2026 guidance due to volatility linked to President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement, Oppenheimer said in a Monday client note, ahead of the retail giant's Analyst Day event this week.

Last week, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on several countries, including China, which responded with its own retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US products. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Trump's tariffs will likely drive inflation higher and slow down growth for the world's biggest economy.

In February, Walmart said it expects per-share adjusted earnings for the ongoing fiscal year in a range of $2.50 to $2.60, including a currency headwind of about $0.05. The current consensus on FactSet is for $2.62. The retailer expects sales growth between 3% and 4% on a constant currency basis, including a roughly 20-basis-point impact from a lapping leap year, compared with the Street's estimate of $705.38 billion.

The brokerage reaffirmed its earlier view that Walmart's management could withdraw its full-year guidance amid the volatile tariff backdrop, "which could make it quite difficult to provide new projections with reasonable confidence." However, Walmart's management is likely to reiterate its long-term sales growth target of about 4%, the note added.

Walmart is scheduled to hold Analyst Day events on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to the brokerage.

Walmart shares have "meaningfully" outperformed in the prior four recessions, with positive stock price appreciation in each period, the brokerage said.

Oppenheimer decreased its fiscal 2026 EPS target for Walmart to $2.50 from $2.55. The brokerage also slashed its earnings estimates for the second, third and fourth quarters, citing the potential impact of tariffs on discretionary spending later in the year.

"We expect consumers to stock-up near term ahead of potential tariff induced price increases, offsetting some discretionary category headwinds lately." Oppenheimer analysts Rupesh Parikh and Erica Eiler said. "We currently do not expect the upcoming Analyst Day to represent a positive catalyst for shares."

The brokerage reduced its price target for the stock to $95 from $110.