US natgas prices drop 5% to 7-week low on record output and tariff worries

Reuters
04-08
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices drop 5% to 7-week low on record output and tariff worries

US gas production on track to hit record high in April

US LNG export feedgas on track to ease in April from March record

US gas inventories on track for rare build in March

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% to a seven-week low on Monday on record output and worries U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could reduce global economic growth and demand for energy.

"Although gas is usually a weather-driven market, it is also an industrial commodity subject to the vagaries of the U.S. economic growth path and as a result, the tariff factor may require downward adjustments in expected U.S. gas demand this year," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said.

Gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18.2 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $3.655 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since February 13.

Prices declined despite forecasts for cooler weather and more gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Looking ahead, the premium of futures for June over May NGK25-M25 fell to around 9 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since February 2023.

Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.

Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states edged up to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, slightly up from a monthly record 106.2 bcfd in March.

Looking forward, analysts noted the drop in U.S. crude CLc1 futures due in part to worries Trump's trade tariffs could result in less oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, which could cut gas output associated with that oil production. O/R

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 22.

With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 109.4 bcfd this week to 98.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. eased to 15.7 bcfd so far in April, down from a monthly record 15.8 bcfd in March.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around a six-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and held near a three-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Apr 4 Forecast

Week ended Mar 28 Actual

Year ago Apr 4

Five-year average

Apr 4

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+47

+29

+16

+17

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,820

1,773

2,280

1,870

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-2.7%

-4.3%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.82

3.84

1.79

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.47

11.70

9.11

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.92

13.08

10.06

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

173

171

126

165

172

U.S. GFS CDDs

33

39

35

33

27

U.S. GFS TDDs

206

210

161

198

199

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.2

106.7

106.1

101.9

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.8

8.1

7.6

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.0

114.7

113.7

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.9

2.1

2.2

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.3

6.9

6.8

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.8

15.8

15.7

12.6

11.8

U.S. Commercial

8.7

10.4

8.0

9.7

11.8

U.S. Residential

12.1

15.0

10.6

14.1

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

26.8

27.4

24.9

28.8

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.2

24.1

23.2

23.6

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.2

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

78.2

84.5

74.1

83.8

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

104.3

109.4

98.7

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

91

92

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

90

90

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

90

91

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Apr 11

Week ended Apr 4

2024

2023

2022

Wind

18

15

11

10

11

Solar

5

6

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

36

42

41

38

Coal

17

16

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

4.04

4.21

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.37

3.26

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.63

2.94

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.15

3.22

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.67

3.70

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.56

3.40

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.30

3.73

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.92

2.51

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.70

1.86

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

37.69

37.69

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

57.30

46.48

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

14.97

31.16

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

25.63

19.92

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

10.00

3.88

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Richard Chang)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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