In the middle of a trade war, with tariff threats flying fast and furious, you might expect a big commodity company like United States Steel (X -8.06%) to suffer serious damage.

But it hasn't. Being part of an industry that tariffs are intended to protect has insulated the company from the worst of the market's recent volatility, and as of Wednesday, U.S. Steel stock was trading at its highest share price of 2025, more than $45.

But on Thursday, U.S. Steel stock took a tumble, trading down by 7.9% as of 12:11 p.m. ET. The reason for that slide wasn't tariffs, but it was President Donald J. Trump.

Trump on U.S. Steel

For more than a year, Japan's Nippon Steel has been trying to buy U.S. Steel. Trump doesn't want this sale to happen, however, and on Wednesday, he reiterated his opposition to it: "We don't want to see it go to Japan," he said of U.S. Steel. Adding some confusion to the deal's prospects, however, he also said that "we love Japan" and "we're working with them."

The statements seem contradictory, presenting a real will-they-or-won't-they dilemma, as investors try to figure out what precisely the president wants to happen, and whether he will in the end permit Nippon Steel to buy U.S. Steel.

How investors should think about U.S. Steel stock

Nippon is reportedly offering $14 billion for U.S. Steel, which only has a market capitalization of $9.5 billion at present. If the acquisition is permitted to go through, it would yield shareholders a nearly 50% profit almost immediately.

But what if the merger does not happen?

Well, in that case, U.S. Steel would still benefit from President Trump's tariffs on imported steel, which will raise the cost of foreign steel here, and allow U.S. Steel to raise its own prices -- and boost its own profits. U.S. Steel is already profitable without the tariffs, and trades at less than 25 times trailing earnings.

Long story short, investors have two ways to win on U.S. Steel stock. It may be time to buy.