It hasn't been the best quarter for Adairs Limited (ASX:ADH) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. In that time, it is up 71%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 74%.
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over half a decade, Adairs managed to grow its earnings per share at 2.1% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 11% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on Adairs' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Adairs' TSR for the last 5 years was 130%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
It's good to see that Adairs has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 4.2% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. However, that falls short of the 18% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Adairs , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Adairs is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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