Canadian home sales fell by 4.8% between February and March, the fourth consecutive monthly drop in a row for this indicator, noted National Bank of Canada.

Following this decline, the number of transactions was 20% below the level in November last year, reversing last year's rebound following the central bank's interest rate cuts, said the bank.

Milder weather in March, particularly in the eastern provinces, failed to stimulate the housing market, as sales declined in eight of the country's 10 provinces, with Prince Edward Island (+2.7%) and Saskatchewan (+0.3%) being the exceptions. Newfoundland (-12.9%), New Brunswick (-8.7%), Ontario (-7.1%), British Columbia (-7.0%), and Manitoba (-5.2%) experienced above-average declines in sales, while Nova Scotia (-4.5%), Quebec (-3.1%), and Alberta (-0.6%) experienced smaller drops.

There is no doubt that the ongoing trade war with the United States has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting, stated National Bank.

On the supply side, new listings rebounded 3.0% from February to March following an 11.9% decrease the previous month. Combined with the decrease in sales, active listings increased by 3.3% during the month, the third monthly advance in a row, despite still elevated
cancelled listings in March.

Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fourth consecutive
month, jumping from 4.7 in February to 5.1 in March, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding COVID-19).

Meanwhile, market conditions loosened sharply during the month and moved from slightly tighter than their historical average to looser than average for the first time since June 2019, excluding COVID-19. This was mainly due to a sharp softening in market conditions in Ontario and B.C., which are now deep into "favourable to buyers" territory.

All other provinces are still showing tighter than average market conditions, pointed out the bank. These suppler market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.0% month-over-month and by 2.1% year-over-year.

On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.3% compared with March 2024, reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the 10 provinces, with the biggest decreases in Ontario (-24.6%) and B.C. (-9.6%), while the
sharpest increases were observed in PEI (+13.5%), Newfoundland (+9.7%), and Quebec (+9.1%).

For Q1 2025, cumulative home sales were down 6.3% compared with the same period in 2024.