China's counter-tariffs on US goods will impact American analog semiconductor and CPU makers who rely heavily on the Chinese market for revenue, Jefferies said in a research note.

Meanwhile, Chinese firms like Hua Hong Semiconductor (HKG:1347, SHA:688347), StarPower Semiconductor (SHA:603290) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (HKG:0981, SHA:688981) may see increased opportunities due to these changes, the equity research firm said.

Intel is particularly vulnerable due to its large China revenue, at 29% of its total in 2024, and 60% of its production being US-based.

The impact could accelerate a switch to domestic CPU suppliers like SMIC-produced Kunpeng or Hygon, Jefferies said.

The cost of iPhones assembled in China could also rise slightly, as US-made radio frequency components from companies like Skyworks and Qorvo become subject to China's import duties, the research firm said.

Despite the new tariffs, Jefferies expects imports of semiconductor production equipment (SPE) to remain duty-free, reflecting continued government support.

However, the exemption and a possible shift by US vendors' assemblies to Singapore and Malaysia means Chinese SPE manufacturers will not likely gain greatly from the tariff increases.