Stock futures climbed early Monday, hinting at a positive open after some of the most chaotic and turbulent weeks in recent market memory.

Nasdaq futures were up 1.6%, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.4% and the Dow rising 1% in premarket trading. Gold, meanwhile, slipped 0.1%, suggesting a slight pullback from last week’s mad dash into safe-haven assets.

A surprise tariff exemption for electronics announced late Friday sparked the tech-led bounce. The exemption, issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, temporarily removes smartphones, laptops, and other consumer electronics from Trump administrationtariffs on Chinese goods – offering relief for companies such as Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing.

But the reprieve may be short-lived. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the products are still included under a forthcoming round of semiconductor-related tariffs “coming in probably a month or two.”

President Donald Trump later contradicted the idea of an exemption altogether, saying the goods are still subject to existing 20% fentanyl-linked tariffs and merely shifting tariff categories. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts criticized the shifting policies as “chaos and corruption,” warning that such unpredictability is eroding investor confidence.

Forecasts cut amidst extreme fear

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Fear & Greed Index is still planted in “extreme fear” territory, reflecting a lack of bullish sentiment amidst chaotic policy announcements — to say nothing of chaotic policy determination. The S&P 500's recent 5% intraday swings suggest volatility that is more structural than seasonal.

Analysts at both Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) have cut their year-end forecasts for U.S. stocks, pointing to rising risks from such unpredictable policy moves and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Heading into a packed week of corporate earningsin which major banks, healthcare companies, and consumer-facing platforms such as Netflix (NFLX) will report results, each release could either steady or rattle investor nerves.

Apple bites back

Apple stock jumped more than 5% in premarket trading on Monday, lifted by hope of temporary exemption from new electronics tariffs.

Separately, Apple reclaimed the top spot in global smartphone shipments for the first quarter 2025, thanks to strong demand for the iPhone 16e in markets like Japan and India. Even alongside valid fears of disruptions to Apple’s supply chain, its product suite and global brand power remain unmatched.

Goldman Sachs opens the earnings floodgates

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a robust 15% increase in first-quarter profit, reaching $4.74 billion, or $14.12 per share, driven by strong trading performance amid market volatility. Goldman stock rose about 1.5% in early trading.

But it’s not just about one earnings beat. Goldman is a bellwether for how corporate America is handling volatility, providing a real-time pulse check on capital flows and investor sentiment in a year that’s been anything but normal. On Monday, it’s a reminder that Wall Street firms may make money whether times are good or bad.

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