Netflix Stock Jumps on Earnings Beat. Why Tariffs Won't Hurt the Streamer

Dow Jones
04-18

Netflix reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings on Thursday and stuck by its current guidance, underlining why its shares can weather any downturn sparked by President Donald Trump's trade policies.

Netflix reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.61 a share on revenue of $10.54 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected earnings of $5.67 a share on revenue of $10.5 billion.

The stock climbed 3.5% in after-hours trading. As of the market close Thursday, it has risen 9.2% this year.

This was the first quarter Netflix didn't disclose an updated subscriber count, a metric that investors previously have watched closely. A quarter ago, the company reported a net gain of 18.9 million paid subscriptions, which was a record and far exceeded projections.

In the latest report, management only said in a letter to shareholders that "both operating income and revenue for the quarter was higher than expectations due to "slightly higher subscription and ad revenue."

The streaming company also said it still expects 2025 revenue will be between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, as there's been "no material change to our overall business outlook since our last earnings report." That's likely to be an important point for investors, given uncertainty surrounding the global economy.

For the second quarter, Netflix expects earnings of $7.03 on revenue of $11 billion, which is higher than analysts' expectations for earnings of $6.25 a share on revenue of $10.9 billion.

Strong guidance is an important win for the streamer, especially as uncertainty plagues the future economic environment. Trump's tariffs have taken a toll on consumer sentiment and fueled worries about inflation, and if prices rise consumers may pull back on nonessential spending such as on streaming services and other subscriptions.

However, first-quarter operating income rose 27% from the prior year to $3.3 billion, while operating margins came in at 31.7%. Netflix increased prices to many of its global customers in the latest quarter.

Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters said on the company's post-earnings video interview that in terms of any material impact on the business due to the economic uncertainty, "there's nothing really significant to note."

"We also take some comfort in the fact that entertainment historically has been pretty resilient in tougher economic times," Peters added. "Netflix specifically also has been generally quite resilient."

Netflix also offers a lower-priced ad-tier, which could help it hold onto subscribers if users do cut back on spending but still want access to Netflix content. Peters said that the lower cost plan "gives us more resilience."

Netflix said that its 2025 revenue guide "assumes healthy member growth, higher subscription pricing, and a rough doubling of our ad revenue."

Seaport Research Partners analyst David Joyce said Netflix looks well-positioned to weather any slowdown in U.S. growth, with consumers likely to prioritize cutting back on higher-ticket purchases rather than canceling their streaming subscriptions.

"The Netflix business model can withstand potential recessionary pressures due to its low-cost-per-hour-of-entertainment service that can serve as incremental replacement for consumer entertainment, travel, etc. if the economy experiences a broad spending pullback," he wrote in a research note, while raising his price target to $1,060 from $1,025. That implies shares can jump 8.9% from their level as of Thursday's close.

Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak hiked his own Wall-Street-high price target on the stock to $1,350, up from a previous $1,250. "Even in a global recession scenario Netflix is likely to be highly resilient given the price-to-value of the service remains very attractive," he said, adding that Netflix's advertising business is so small right now that it's likely headed for strong growth no matter how poorly the economy ends up faring.

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