The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1155 ET - Oil futures extend gains as the pickup in prices prompts some short-covering in a market that remains downbeat about demand. A weaker dollar favoring U.S. exports, tighter U.S. enforcement against Iranian exports and short-covering by funds are among factors lifting prices, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. "Even as a longer-term bearish trend persists, no one wants to be short crude near-term with more pressure coming to Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar, just as we begin entering the driving season," he says. WTI is up 3% at $64.35 a barrel, and Brent is 2.7% higher at $67.64 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1139 ET - American Express saw a deceleration in airline spending in the latest quarter, but people continue booking more flights as the credit-card company's customer base remains untouched by macro uncertainty, CEO Stephen Squeri says on an analyst call, citing a highest-ever number of travel bookings, including a high in international bookings from its travel-related services. Despite a lack of confidence in the economy, Squeri says, the company's card members are still spending and "they're not spending off what's in the market." Squeri adds that through the 11 financial crises he's endured with the company, he has not seen such events become a "determining driver from a credit-crunch perspective" for Amex. (sabela.ojea@wsj.com; @sabelaojeaguix)

1108 ET - Natural gas futures extend gains as the EIA reports a smaller-than-expected inventory increase for last week. Gas in underground storage rose by 16 billion cubic feet to 1,846 Bcf, versus expectations of a 23 Bcf increase in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. The storage deficit against the five-year average widened to 74 Bcf from 40 Bcf the week before. The deficit had narrowed sharply in the four previous weeks due to mild March weather cutting into demand. Nymex natural gas is up 1.9% at $3.310/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1019 ET - U.S. natural gas prices edge up ahead of the EIA's weekly storage data that are expected to show a small build for last week, widening the inventory deficit for the first time in five weeks. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predict an injection of 23 billion cubic feet to 1,853 Bcf, compared with a five-year average increase for the week of 50 Bcf. Nymex natural gas is up 0.3% at $3.256/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1000 ET - Oil futures are higher with support from a handful of small positives from continued dollar weakness, more U.S. sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil and optimism over trade talks, to updated output compensation plans from OPEC+ overproducers. "As prices fluctuate and demand weakens, OPEC+ remains in control with flexibility to cut production if needed," Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy says in a note. OPEC+ could slow or reverse its production increases, "and will not allow prolonged price drops without taking action," he adds. WTI is up 1.1% at $63.17 a barrel, and Brent is 1.1% higher at $66.59 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0927 ET - Oil prices advance in afternoon trade, but further upside might be capped due to uncertainties over U.S. tariffs and ample global supplies in the near term, according to Commerzbank Research analysts. Brent crude rises 1.5% to $66.84 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.7% to $62.86 a barrel. Both benchmarks are on track to notch weekly gains of around 5%, boosted by the latest U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports. "Iran recently exported 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day," says Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research, citing Bloomberg data. "The U.S. Treasury Secretary declared his willingness to take all measures to reduce this to zero. However, this is unlikely to be possible so quickly." Commerzbank analysts expect global oil markets to remain amply supplied, in part due to larger-than-anticipated output increases from OPEC and its allies. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0916 ET - Oil-demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA look overly optimistic, according to Capital Economics. The cartel now expects demand growth at 1.3 million barrels a day this year and 1.28 million barrels a day the next, while the Paris-based agency forecasts demand to grow by 726,000 barrels a day and 692,000 barrels a day in the next two years. "Using the relationship between oil demand and global GDP as a rough rule of thumb, our base case forecasts are consistent with oil demand barely rising over the next few years," assistant economist Lily Millard says. As a result, Capital Economics sees greater downside risks to oil prices and says OPEC+ might have to re-assess its output plans if prices weaken further. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0836 ET - OPEC+'s decision to implement a larger-than-expected supply hike in May might be a warning to member states that have exceeded production targets, according to Capital Economics. "Recent moves to hike OPEC+ oil output quotas but make overproducers cut production suggests that the Gulf economies are taking a firmer line on regaining global oil market share," says James Swanston, senior Middle East and North Africa economist. Capital Economics says the move could pressure overproducers such as Kazakhstan and Iraq--who are set to shoulder the bulk of the upcoming compensation cuts--by exposing them to the brunt of declining prices. "As a result of these moves, the Gulf producers will increase production over the rest of this year and gain market share from the overproducers," Swanston says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0655 ET - Siemens Energy's stock remains overvalued despite the company's second-quarter results significantly exceeding market expectations, Mwb-research analyst Leon Muhlenbruch says. Most divisions experienced strong growth, with gas services delivering a remarkable 102.1% year-on-year increase in order intake, the analyst notes. However, the stock's current valuation doesn't fully reflect potential downside risks, particularly from geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, he says. Mwb-research maintains a sell rating on Siemens Energy stock but increases its price target to 52 euros from 50 euros. Shares are up 13% at 64.94 euros. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0625 ET - Fitch Ratings lowered its oil price forecast for this year on expectations of lower economic growth due to trade tariffs and higher-than-expected production increases from OPEC+ members. "We forecast global oil demand growth to be well below 1 million barrels per day in 2025 due to slower global economic growth, particularly in China, and further weakness in the petrochemicals sector, which is already in a downturn," the credit rating agency says. Fitch now estimates Brent crude at $65 a barrel and WTI at $60 a barrel, both down $5 a barrel from previous projections. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0616 ET - The surprise weakening of the U.S. dollar has created more room for global central banks to ease policy, says Fitch Ratings, which now expects deeper rate cuts from the ECB and emerging markets. As world growth slows, lower prices of commodities, including oil, will also spur a faster pace of monetary easing outside of the U.S., the ratings company says in a report. That will contrast with the Fed, which Fitch still expects to wait until 4Q to lower rates. The inflation picture is constraining the Fed's ability to loosen policy despite the deteriorating U.S. growth outlook, it says. Fitch expects the tariff escalation to drive U.S. inflation to 4.3% by the year's end, compared with its previous projection of 3.6%. (farah.elias@wsj.com)

0421 ET - European natural-gas prices rise in early trade, supported by a report that China would be open to trade talks with the U.S. under certain conditions. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 1.2% to 35.74 euros a megawatt hour and on track for a weekly gain of more than 7%. Meanwhile, EU countries are seeking extra flexibility on the bloc's gas storage targets ahead of the winter season. "Our base case remains that European gas storage [levels] today are too low for inventories to reach the European Commission's target of 90% full by end October," analysts at MUFG say. "We view storage can still reach over 80% full, which will likely be sufficient to navigate winter 2025/26, given the ongoing ramp in global LNG supply." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 17, 2025 11:55 ET (15:55 GMT)

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