Nvidia Could See Hit to Financials Amid Restrictions on Chip Exports to China, Morgan Stanley Says

MT Newswires
04-17
Nvidia NVDA -Shutterstock
The US government's export restrictions on a chip made by Nvidia (NVDA) could be "disruptive" to its financials, Morgan Stanley said in a note emailed Wednesday, after the chipmaker said it would take up to $5.5 billion in related charges.

In a late Tuesday filing, Nvidia said that the government requires a license to export H20 integrated circuits to China and "D:5 countries." The restrictions also apply to "any other circuits achieving the H20's memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, or combination thereof," according to the filing.

UBS Securities said that Russia and other US arms-embargo countries are part of the D5 group.

Nvidia's fiscal first-quarter results will include a charge of up to $5.5 billion related to inventory of H20 products, purchase commitments and related reserves, the company said. Nvidia's shares were falling 6.5% in Wednesday trading. The company's first quarter ends on April 27, and results for that period are due out May 28.

An inventory write-down of $5.5 billion likely indicates more than $12 billion in lost revenue with gross margins approaching 60%, Morgan Stanley said.

"We still expected H20 to be restricted by export controls, but stopped shipments 'effective immediately' is a bit more disruptive, and the large inventory write-down is a cautionary signal," the brokerage said.

The magnitude of the write-down suggests that management was more optimistic on future H20 revenue than what Morgan Stanley had perceived, according to the report. The bank cut Nvidia's data center revenue estimates by 8% to 9% for the next two quarters, but left its outlook unchanged beyond October.

"This is not a ban, it's a licensing requirement, but again the inventory write-down suggests that the company is not optimistic about being granted licenses," the note added.

After announcing sweeping new tariffs on US imports earlier this month, President Donald Trump declared a 90-day pause on certain tariffs for non-retaliating countries. China responded with its own retaliatory duties, and Washington and Beijing have since raised tariffs on each other's goods multiple times.

Separately, Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) said in a Wednesday filing that the new licensing requirement applies to its MI308 products, and may result in charges of up to $800 million.

Advanced Micro Devices' shares were down 6.6% intraday.



















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