Seaport Research Partners has downgraded payment companies PayPal (PYPL, Financial) and Bill Holdings (BILL, Financial), citing growing macroeconomic uncertainty and rising trade tensions. The firm points to a “tariff-heavy world” as a key reason for its more cautious stance.

PayPal was cut from Neutral to Sell, with analysts expressing skepticism over the company's mid-term forecast of 8% to 10% growth in Checkout total payment volume. “We think it's going to be a struggle for the company to meet the guidance,” said analyst Jeff Cantwell, particularly if consumer discretionary spending begins to cool.

The revised price target for PayPal is $49, down from its previous level. That stands in contrast to broader sentiment from Wall Street and Seeking Alpha contributors, many of whom still rate the stock as a Buy. Quantitative models currently rate it as a Hold.

Bill Holdings was also downgraded, moving from Buy to Neutral. Seaport cited doubts around the company's ability to accelerate core revenue growth to 20% in fiscal 2026. The firm noted that current projections may not hold up under evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Both downgrades reflect broader concerns about how digital payments firms will perform as global trade disruptions persist.

It's important to note that PayPal shares dropped 4.8% over the past week and 11.7% in the last month, compared with the S&P 500's respective declines of 3.2% and 6.4%. Over six months and year‑to‑date, PYPL has plunged about 24.7% and 28.7%, while the broader market has fallen roughly 9.6% and 10.2%. In each period, PayPal has underperformed the sector median by a wide margin, with losses more than double those of the S&P 500.