The global wine demand is declining due to US tariff uncertainty, and while Treasury Wine Estates' (ASX:TWE) brands are not immune, they are outperforming in aggregate, Jarden Research said in a Monday note.

The investment and advisory firm cut its fiscal 2025 through to 2027 earnings per share forecast by 2% to reflect weaker US demand and sit below fiscal year guidance for group earnings before interest and taxes.

Jarden's earnings before interest and taxes estimate is at AU$769 million, below the company's guidance of roughly AU$780 million, the note said.

The challenge is a catalyst for the company to realize portfolio value, demerger potential, clarity on guidance, and the index exclusion key, according to the note.

The firm maintained Treasury Wine Estates' buy rating and AU$13.90 price target.

Treasury Wine Estates' shares were up almost 2% in recent Thursday trade.