New U.S. export restrictions are likely to shave 8% to 10% off Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices' (NASDAQ:AMD) 2025 earnings per share, according to a Thursday investor note from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).
The banks' analysts said both chipmakers were recently notified by U.S. authorities that shipping their H20 and MI308 chips to China would require new licenses. Nvidia has warned it expects a $5.5 billion charge due to the halt in shipments, while AMD estimated an $800 million hit.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Harlan Sur, said they expect Nvidia's $5.5 billion inventory charge, at a 65% to 67% gross margin, could translate into a $15 billion to $16 billion revenue impact, or roughly 8% to 10% of its anticipated total $180 billion in data center GPU sales this year.
For AMD, the same charge at a 45% to 55% margin would imply a $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion impact, based on an estimated $16 billion in data center revenue. That equates to about 10% of that segment.
JPMorgan expects the overall revenue impact on merchant AI GPUs to fall in the same 8% to 10% range.
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