The Teranet-National Bank composite house price index fell 0.4% from February to March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and a sharper contraction than in previous months, said National Bank of Canada.

This comes at a time when the Canadian resale market continues to slow, due in particular to uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States, noted the bank.

As a result, prices have declined by 0.7% since December 2024, with a more pronounced decline for condominiums (-1.2%) and a slightly less significant decline for other types of housing (-0.3%), pointed out National Bank.

Although the real estate market has slowed in all Canaian provinces, the magnitude of this decline in activity is particularly noticeable in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in British Columbia, the two least affordable markets in the country, stated the bank.

In addition, the weakness in the Ontario housing market isn't limited to a few markets, but is a broader issue, as 81% of the CMAs in this province (13 out of 16) covered by the bank's price indices experienced declines from February to March, compared with only 40% for other markets outside Ontario.

It should also be noted that more affordable real estate markets are faring better, added National Bank. This is particularly true in Quebec, where the four CMAs covered by the bank's indices are among the top five in the country in terms of annual price growth (Sudbury completing the list), with increases ranging from 9.7% in Montreal to 18.3% in Trois-Rivieres compared with March 2024.

In a context of ongoing economic uncertainty, moderate population growth and the risk that long-term interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected, home prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming months, according to the bank.