United Airlines (UAL) is expected to outperform despite macro uncertainty due to its diversified revenue streams, "strong" loyalty program, and solid free cash flow, BofA Securities said in a note Tuesday.

The firm said its new 2025 earnings per share forecast is $10.14, slightly above the Street estimate of $10.10 and the company's recession scenario of $7 to $9 but below United's stable scenario of $11.50 to $13.50.

United provided some data points on international, corporate and premium revenue under both earnings scenarios. In 2024, international passenger revenue made up 37% of total revenue, with 80% of that coming from US bookings and 7.5% from non-US bookings. On corporate travel, business demand is now down 8 percentage points as a share of passenger revenue and 440 basis points less to load factor, "which could mean less volatility in the recessionary scenario," according to the note.

International premium bookings are still showing "solidly positive" growth in Q2, while domestic premium is holding steady. Overall, United sees stability in demand at the lower levels set in recent weeks, BofA said.

Given the revised EPS forecast below United's stable scenario, BofA lowered its price objective to $90 from $100. The firm maintained its buy rating on the stock.

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