The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0745 GMT - More businesses in the U.S. are likely to encounter financial distress in the near term as interest rates are relatively high and credit conditions are restrictive, analysts at Zaye Capital Markets say in a note. The analysts cite DataArbor and S&P Global data which show U.S. bankruptcy filings increased to 691 fillings in 2024, the highest level since 2010. "The delayed effects of monetary policy tightening are still rippling through the economy, revealing the depth of strain in these industries," the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0737 GMT - The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys are more of a concern than the U.S. economy or the U.S. stock market, says Reichmuth & Co's Christof Reichmuth in a note. The performance of the dollar and Treasurys "depend directly on political decisions," he says. While Russia turned its back on the U.S. dollar a decade ago and China is no longer expanding its holdings, European countries are now also questioning the safety of their U.S. dollar reserves, he says. Meanwhile, there are still excellent companies in the U.S., particularly in the technology and energy sectors, although the U.S. stock market is currently highly valued and therefore unattractive, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0736 GMT - Sumitomo Life Insurance plans to increase its Japanese government bond holdings by several hundred billion yen in the current fiscal year ending March 2026, says Mitsuo Masuda, who is in charge of the company's investment planning. "We are planning to invest in superlong bonds when yields are on the rise," he says at a news conference. The life insurer held about 14 trillion yen of domestic bonds as of end-March. Sumitomo Life pushed back its projection for a rate hike in Japan due to tariff uncertainty, Masuda says, adding that it now expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October or later, compared to its previous forecast for July. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - The euro is likely to trade within a range of $1.13 and $1.14 for the time being ahead of key economic data and high-profile U.S. earnings, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The European Central Bank's survey on inflation expectations on Tuesday could show a decline in concerns over price pressures. However, eurozone April inflation data on Friday could show a pick-up in core inflation, he says. Eurozone first quarter economic growth data are also due Wednesday. In addition, this week sees earnings from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Meta. "Their fallout on U.S. equities will probably also continue the recent positive correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar," Turner says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1344. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0715 GMT - China is likely to remain cautious about its plans for stimulus measures to avoid an early all-in approach due to likely prolonged trade tensions, Jefferies analyst Shujin Chen says in a research note. Beijing described the U.S.-China trade war as an "economic and trade battle," compared with the wording used in 2018, when it called it an "economic and trade friction," Chen notes. The harsher tone reflects China's view of the trade war as long-term and challenging, she adds. Given the current situation is more severe than Trump's first presidential term, Beijing is likely preparing for negotiations that last 2-3 years or longer, she says, adding that China is "waiting for the other side to act while keeping options open." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - The Turkish lira's situation is deteriorating again even after Turkey's central bank raised interest rates, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The central bank's flip-flopping of monetary policy has probably dented its credibility "all over again," he says. Earlier this month the central bank raised its policy rate in the wake of the lira's sharp fall after the arrest of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rival Ekrem Imamoglu. It came after the central bank had started cutting rates too fast on a modest improvement in inflation, Ghose says. The dollar rises 0.1% to 38.4488 lira and Commerzbank expects it to increase steadily over the coming quarters. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - Japanese stocks ended higher as fears about U.S.-China trade tensions continued to ebb. Auto stocks led gains. Toyota Motor advanced 3.6% and Nissan Motor climbed 2.3%. Toyota Industries jumped 23% after it said it received various proposals, including one to take the company private. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.4% to 35839.99. Investors are focusing on domestic earnings as well as any developments related to U.S. tariffs. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 1 basis point to 1.320%. USD/JPY was at 143.87, compared with 143.68 late Friday in New York. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0633 GMT - The Bank of England will likely remain cautious despite the clouds hanging over economic growth in the U.K., Robert Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics tells investors in a note. The central bank's monetary-policy committee will meet next month to decide its next move, with investors widely expecting a quarter-point cut to the key interest rate amid signs of an economic slowdown. A minority expect the MPC to opt for a more drastic 50-point reduction, but that doesn't look likely, Wood says. While confidence surveys are growing bleak, underlying data show the U.K. economy was "ticking along just fine prior to recent ructions," he notes. "Accordingly, the MPC can avoid acting as though their hair is on fire by green-lighting a jumbo rate cut," Wood says. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0633 GMT - The dollar edges higher, supported by hopes for a de-escalation in the global trade war and reduced risks surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence. President Trump last week announced progress in trade talks with Japan, signalled tariffs against China could be substantially lowered and said he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "And happily, we heard no major bombs from Trump or his administration over the weekend," Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. "So, the week starts with some optimism." The dollar could also benefit from month-end rebalancing flows, according to Barclays. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 99.5760. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0628 GMT - Improving risk sentiment could weigh on the recovery in German Bunds, but Commerzbank Research remains constructive on Bunds and eurozone government bond duration given likely weak data, says rates strategist Rainer Guntermann in a note. "This week's likely weak GDP and lower inflation data should be supportive," he says. Stronger first-quarter GDP numbers will probably be seen as old pretariff data, which was bolstered by front-loaded U.S. exports, he says. He expects the data to strengthen the case for the next interest-rate cut by the European Central Bank in June. This week's data flurry will include first estimate for the eurozone's 1Q GDP on Wednesday, as well as first estimate for eurozone inflation in April and March unemployment on Friday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0615 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower, extending last week's move in early European trade. "The recent market dynamics are likely to extend at the start of the week with U.S. Treasurys underpinned, Bunds consolidating and spreads tightening, before a high-profile global data cluster provides a reality check on Wednesday," says Commerzbank Research's Rainer Guntermann in a note. The two-year Treasury yield last trades at 3.754%, down 1 basis point; the 10-year yield drops 2 basis points to last trade at 4.247%; the 30-year yield trades 2.5 basis points lower at 4.711%, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year Bund yield is flat at 2.470% at opening. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0557 GMT - Goldman Sachs's rates strategists expect unchanged nominal coupon auction sizes and modest increases in TIPS, or inflation-protected securities, in the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, they say in a note. "We think that maintaining the language of unchanged coupon sizes for 'at least the next several quarters' is likely," they say. Removing or significantly softening without a clear offset could introduce concerns about more duration supply and in turn renew upward pressure on term premium, the strategists say. Goldman Sachs expects nominal auction sizes to begin to rise in 3Q 2026. The U.S. Treasury is set to announce the borrowing estimates Monday and the issuance breakdown Wednesday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2025 03:46 ET (07:46 GMT)

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