By Shaina Mishkin

Home prices are still rising from year-ago levels. But they're losing steam -- or even dropping in some parts of the country.

Prices likely rose 4.4% in February from the year prior, according to FactSet consensus estimates for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index tracking 20 large metropolitan areas. The index lags behind other industry measures of prices, but is closely watched because of its methodology, which is meant to eliminate distortion from the size or type of home sold.

Prices remained firm even as existing-home sales waned over the past several years. That is due, in part, to a relatively low level of homes for sale even as higher costs priced some buyers out of the market. But an increase in the number of homes for sale is slowing price gains this year, industry data suggest.

If consensus expectations come to pass, it will be the slowest gain from year-ago levels since November. It would also echo a slowdown in price gains for existing homes since January, according to National Association of Realtors data. There were 1.33 million existing-homes for sale at the end of March, the trade group said recently, up about 20% from one year prior but still below the prepandemic norm.

Price growth won't be evenly distributed across metropolitan areas. In January, the most recent month for which Case-Shiller data is available, prices grew most quickly in Boston, Chicago, and New York, rising 6.6%, 7.5%, and 7.7%, respectively.

Of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the index, prices only fell in one. Prices in Tampa, Fla., which is north of where Hurricane Milton made landfall last autumn, were 1.5% lower than one year prior. Prices gained most slowly in Dallas and Denver, rising 1.3% and 1.9%, from the year prior, respectively.

More homes for sale in those metros likely will keep prices soft. Active listings in March in all three were higher than 2019 levels, according to Redfin data. Median sale prices increased 0.9% from the year prior in Denver, were about flat in Tampa, and fell 1.4% in Dallas, according to Redfin.

Prices and inventory bear watching in the coming months. While many economists expect that prices will continue to rise this year, Zillow recently lowered its home value forecast to call for a 1.9% decline this year. The number of homes for sale are key to home prices from here, Barron's previously reported.

The slowdown in prices "has now expanded outside of the Sunbelt and is also being seen up through Colorado and parts of the western U.S.," Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research for Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE, said in a statement. "Prices remain firmer in the Northeast and the Midwest, where inventory deficits persist. Even so, those areas have also seen recent cooling."

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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April 28, 2025 16:00 ET (20:00 GMT)

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