美股詳情

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集運歐線：短期內美方政策不斷反覆，建議觀望為主

5月中旬前漲價計劃提前宣告失敗，集運歐線中期仍看空

部分航司開啓漲價動作強化市場運價反彈預期

利空因素較多集運指數大幅回調

預計集運指數近期行情波動加大，單邊趨勢性行情暫需等待

馬士基下調第12周歐線運價，對集運歐線短期情緒形成利空影響

關注船司開啓新一輪價格戰風險，運價或有進一步下破風險

3月初攬貨壓力下本週或會出現調降3月運價的情況

【光大期貨：船司提漲3月運價，歐線延續上行態勢】光大期貨：週一，歐線遠月合約繼續帶動近月合約上漲，主力04合約漲超12%。消息層面來看，近期美國總統計劃將貿易戰擴大至歐盟國家，或在一定程度上增加市場對中歐關係改善的預期，疊加“接管”加沙的言論導致紅海復航預期降溫，進一步推升了短期搶運需求，料短期歐線或繼續維持強勢。從現貨角度來看，儘管春節期間現貨運價持續回落，但期貨市場更多反映遠期預期。2025年歐線長協價已鎖定在2500-3200美元/FEU，遠高於2023年水平，表明船公司對全年運價信心較高。隨着赫伯羅特從3月1日起提漲至2500/4100，較1800/3000上漲700/1100，在當下基本面淡季，盤面價格的主導因素或有望實現從弱現實到強預期的轉變。在地緣局勢緊張化的背景下，歐線合約間的contango結構或得到延續。

紅海危機結束了？如何影響航運價格？船公司為何仍然避走？

地緣風險預期發生變化，集運歐線短期超預期反彈！

停火談判的推進使得年內復航成為可能，但集運歐線上半年合約受地緣消息進展的影響相對較小

停火協議的達成再生波瀾，集運歐線期貨強勢上漲

在供需基本面改善前，運價走勢維持偏弱

現貨下調持續施壓盤面，集運歐線後市關注美東碼頭工人罷工相關消息

預計短期集運歐線維持高位震盪

中東局勢突變，利多集運指數？

航司或藉助高停航調漲報價，集運歐線仍以低多策略為主

集運歐線後市關注12月宣漲落地和旺季需求兑現情況！

集運歐線：策略上可適當關注基差收斂機會

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